Posts Tagged ‘vanguard’
Vanguard: Risk Assessment
What are the risks that governments, banks, insurers, consultancy groups think about? A detailed vanguard report put together by our colleagues below.
Vanguard: The Global Religious Resurgence
The Second Coming –
the Global Religious Resurgence
In recent years, the belief that the onset of modernity would ultimately lead to a decline in religious belief – a theory known as the secularization thesis – has been challenged by what seems to be a revival in religious adherence across the world. This resurgence is characterized by the growing saliency and persuasiveness of religious beliefs, practices and discourses in both personal and public life, as well as the growing role of religious or religiously related individuals, communities and organizations in the public sphere. Witness for example, the dramatic rise of Islam in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Central Asia and elsewhere; the steep increase in the number of Christians in Africa and Latin America; and the wave of religious violence and terrorism. Outside of Western Europe, religion is gaining traction and visibility in the public sphere too. An Islamist party rules once-secular Turkey, Hindu nationalists may return to power in India and “ever more children in Israel and Palestine are attending religious schools.” In the US, President Obama’s leadership is couched in messianic terms, even as religious conservatives continue to assert their power in politics, the media and culture. Even in China “underground house churches are proliferating so quickly that neither the authorities nor Christian leaders can keep reliable count.”
What is the extent of this global religious resurgence, and how can it be explained? What does rising religiosity portend? This issue of Vanguardwill attempt to take a closer look at these areas.
The global resurgence of religion is taking place throughout the world in different religious traditions: Judaism, Islam, Hinduism, Christianity, Buddhism, among others. However, the world religions that have the most rapid growth rate are Islam and Evangelical Protestantism. It is estimated for example, that the percentage of adherents of Islam will change from roughly 20% today to approximately 23% in 2025. Meanwhile, in the next several decades, Christianity will remain the most adhered-to religion in the world (roughly 33%), though within Christianity, there is a shift of mostly evangelical adherents from Europe and North America to Latin America and Africa. Hence, if a strictly numerical notion of religious resurgence were to be taken, it should focus on Islam and Evangelism as the main contemporary examples of this phenomenon. Several other features characterize the religious resurgence.
Geography
First, the religious resurgence is global in a geographic sense. Indeed, the global resurgence of religion seems to be following a massive general demographic shift in population from the developed countries in the North – Europe and North America, to the developing countries – the global South. It is estimated that the North will account for only 10-12% of the world’s population in 2050. The massive demographic shift is complemented by a cultural shift to religions with high birth rates and high levels of religiosity in the developing world compared to low birth rates and low levels of religiosity in the developed world. These are all therefore major contributors to the resurgence, most strongly evidenced in the former communist countries of Eastern Europe, Central Asia and the Caucasus, as well as Latin America, the Middle East, Africa, China, and South East Asia.
Economic Development
Although the resurgence of religion is taking place in countries at different levels of economic development, for the most part, religious fervour is inversely related to material progress. Religion is less prevalent in developed countries where people are secure and comfortable with their material surroundings than in developing countries. In 2008, the Pew Global Attitudes Project plotted 44 countries according to per capita gross domestic product and intensity of religious beliefs, gauged by responses to several questions about faith. According to the findings of the study, most of the wealthy developed countries, with the notable exception of America, were found to be less religious than poorer developing countries. As highlighted in the graph below, the Western European countries are the least religious, along with the more prosperous countries in Asia – Japan and South Korea. At the same time, the Eastern European countries were more religious than their counterparts in the West, but less so when compared to poorer Latin American, African and Asian countries.
Alternative Perspectives
Not everyone agrees that there is a worldwide religious resurgence. Some argue that religion never really went away, and that the visibilty of religion is attributable to the communications revolution. Others argue that religion seems to be witnessing a decline. An Apr 09 Newsweek poll of Americans’ attitudes about religion and faith, has for example, revealed that the number of Americans claiming to be Christian has declined by 10 percentage points since 1990, while the number who claimed no religious affiliation has increased. Still, according to Newsweek, just because Americans are “less Christian” does not mean that they are becoming less religious. According to the poll, Americans continue to hold steadfast in their faith in a spiritual being, and America continues to remain vibrantly religious – far more so, for instance, than Europe.
Sources:
http://www.wcfia.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/723__Moghadam03_03.pdf
http://pewglobal.org/reports/display.php?ReportID=167
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/print/200803/secularism
http://www.spiegel.de/international/spiegel/0,1518,459500-2,00.html
http://www.newsweek.com/id/192915
http://www.newsweek.com/id/192583
Seeking Existential Security
What accounts for this religious revival? Social theorists and academics see the rise in religiosity as a defensive reaction or backlash to globalization and modernization. Increasing numbers of people who have become disenchanted with the seemingly destabilizing effects of modernity – the fragmentation of society, the emptiness of consumerism and materialism, the breakdown of families, widespread socio-economic grievances, erosion of traditional morality and values, social dislocation and culture shock – are turning to religion to establish meaning and order in an otherwise rapidly changing and often confusing world. Hence, they focus on their individual culture or religion even more to retain a sense of self and identity, and to give them solace and comfort. In this instance, religious resurgence is a response to a general ‘atmosphere of crisis’, and serves as a familiar touchstone that individuals turn to in times of stress. Little wonder then that we are witnessing a surge in the number of worshippers seeking divine intervention at temples, synagogues, churches and mosques during the current economic crisis.
Rather than leading to secularization, the social upheaval and economic dislocation associated with modernization has therefore led to a renewal of traditional religions. Interestingly, it should be noted that whilst religious resurgence is often represented as a backlash to globalization, it also owes its strength to the communications revolution wrought by globalization. Religion has harnessed modern technologies and communications, whether the television or internet, to spread its message. Ironically, then, however much it attempts to contest it, religious resurgence and globalization do not represent a contradiction but are essentially two sides of the same coin. Religious resurgence has drawn strength from the effects of globalization.
Sources:
http://www.law.emory.edu/ihr/worddocs/haynes5.doc
http://globalization.icaap.org/content/v5.2/ahmad.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/14/nyregion/14churches.html?hp
Religious Fundamentalism
Most observers agree that one effect of rising religiosity is manifested in the accompanying emergence of fundamentalist trends in almost every major world religion. Although but a facet of the general religious revival, religious fundamentalism, in its most extreme form, has manifested itself as religiously motivated terrorism. Although only a small minority of fundamentalists have gained notoriety by committing acts of terror, even religious fundamentalists at their most law-abiding seem to be gaining increasing influence. It is crucial therefore, that we take a closer look at fundamentalism.
Although the term “fundamentalism” was first coined by conservative evangelicals within the mainstream Protestant denomination to describe their desire to go back to the fundamentals of their faith, as a generic term, it is now used to describe a multitude of groups both within and outside the Christian faith who claim that the “profound social crisis” caused by modernity can only be overcome by a return to the foundations of their respective religious traditions. Such fundamentalists have in common a fear that their way of life is under threat from the unwelcome liberalization of social mores and values, and the influences of secular-oriented governments. As a result, religious fundamentalists, believing themselves to be beleaguered, seek to alter prevailing socio-political realities by trying to reform society, either by violent or non-violent means in accordance with what they believe are suitable religious tenets and to change the laws, morality, social norms and, if necessary, the political configurations of their polity to build a more traditional society. Fundamentalists may also struggle against co-religionists, whom they perceive as lax in their religious duties, and against members of other faiths.
Sources:
http://www.law.emory.edu/ihr/worddocs/haynes5.doc
http://www.enotalone.com/article/10387.html
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/print/200803/secularism
Conflict or Peace?
Would a more religious world, with its attendant increase in religious fundamentalism, necessarily mean a more fractious world? To be sure, most observers agree that fundamentalism can, and will continue to breed pockets of bitter, sometimes violent religious clashes, terror or tension, especially where they intersect with other social, political and economic realities, and these could persist. Under this argument, the potential for intra and inter religious conflicts between competing belief systems will also continue to exist as evidenced by religiously motivated conflicts in Nigeria (Muslim-Christian), the Middle East (Sunni-Shiite), and even closer home in the Philippines and Indonesia (Muslim-Christian).
But scholars also point to increasing evidence of what can be termed a negation of fundamentalism, violent or otherwise, in any faith as religions also evolve in ways that encourage moderation. Under this argument, religions are flourishing in ways that allow them to fit more easily in secular societies, thereby weakening their potential for disruption.
The growth of the evangelical Christian movement both in America is a case in point. Mega-churches are being built to meet the needs of professionals by offering such services as day-care centers, self-help groups and networking opportunities. Evangelical music owes more to pop culture than to hymns, and church officials learn more from business school case studies rather than theological texts. Having opted to grow on secular terms, the Christian evangelical movement has become more accommodative and tolerant of pluralism. The pattern is prevalent in other religions too. For example, it has been reported that Muslims in both North America and Western Europe are turning their mosques into all-purpose religious institutions and accepting innovations in gender equality. Proponents of this alternative view have also highlighted that the secular underpinnings of the religious revival, and religion’s ability to adapt itself to the cultural practices of the societies that they are based in, could promote religious peace too. Under this argument, secularism and religion are not mutually exclusive opposites, but can interact and work together.
As can be seen above, religion is increasingly becoming a force to be reckoned with, as it becomes a refuge for the fears, anxieties and desires that seem to be a response to the peculiar difficulties of life in the modern secular world. It is likely to remain an essential part of the modern scene, and its role, and interactions within the secular public domain will need to be negotiated by communities and governments around the world.
Sources:
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/print/200803/secularism
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/01/09/weekinreview/09good.html?_r=1
http://www.law.emory.edu/ihr/worddocs/haynes5.doc
Vanguard: Crowdsourcing
This is a Vanguard publication put together by some of our colleagues. This time around, the topic is on crowdsourcing.
Crowdsourcing: Mining the Masses
Faced with the evaporation of credit during a recession, the struggling entrepreneur is forced to look to more enterprising models of business to generate revenue. To be sure, the popularity of traditional businesses, with high overheads and large sunk costs, has certainly waned in a risk-averse economy. Many organizations are either retrenching staff or have ceased hiring to minimize cost.
What is fast gaining popularity among companies and institutions is crowdsourcing; functions once performed by employees are outsourced to an undefined (and generally large) network of people in the form of an open call. Just as Wikipedia taps the spare processing power of millions of human brains to create a comprehensive online encyclopedia, innovative companies in industries as disparate as pharmaceuticals and television are discovering ways to tap the latent talent of the crowd. The labor is not always free, but it costs a lot less than paying traditional employees.
In this issue of Vanguard, we take a closer look at crowdsourcing and the implications this growing phenomenon has on business, education, the media, government and society.
Sources:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/14.06/crowds.html
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fsb/fsb_archive/2007/03/01/8402019/index.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crowdsourcing#cite_note-6
The New Business Model: Between Opensourcing and Outsourcing
Crowdsourcing appears to be a panacea for those who complain that manufacturers have been imperfect at understanding people’s wants. A business trend enabled by information technology, crowdsourcing allows consumers to design products, create content and even take on R & D problems in their spare time. In this arrangement, customers not only define their needs but actively participate in the development of products or enhancements that meet them.
But unlike outsourcing where ad-hoc online communities develop open source software like the computer operating system Linux and internet web browser Mozilla Firefox, crowdsourced work is usually managed or owned by a single company that sells the results for profit. More risk reduction than commercial revolution, crowdsourcing communities are new hybrid hobby/work spaces where real money can be made by both manufacturer and customer in aligning consumer demand to industrial production.
Sources:
http://www.uic.edu/htbin/cgiwrap/bin/ojs/index.php/fm/article/view/2159/1969
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=93495217
http://paylancers.blogspot.com/2006/10/beer-money-mechanical-turk-on-campus.html
http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/jul2006/id20060713_755844.htm
http://www.technologyreview.com/business/21983/?a=f
Learning en masse
While crowdsourcing has proven its worth in generating profit, some have hopes for crowdsourcing as a far-reaching problem-solving model that can harness the intelligence of the crowd to spur academic discovery. As smart as computers may seem today, they cannot quite match humans in certain tasks: describing the contents of an image, rating the quality of web searches or transcribing and translating text from another language come to mind.
A case in point is Stardust@Home – a project started since 2006 that recruits online volunteers to find interstellar dust samples by inspecting 3D images captured by NASA spacecrafts. As an incentive for volunteers, Stardust@home will allow the first individual to discover a particular interstellar dust particle to name it. Also, the discoverer will appear as a co-author on any scientific paper announcing the discovery of the particle.
Another example is the online computer game foldit, which challenges the volunteer-player to decipher how proteins fold to hasten the design of new life-saving vaccines. Players who make breakthroughs will be accredited for their contribution and could even find themselves allotted a share in the Nobel Prize.
Sources:
http://judson.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/01/13/guest-column-a-new-kind-of-big-science/?pagemode=print
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/11/magazine/11Genome-t.html?_r=1&pagewanted=allv
http://www.wired.com/techbiz/media/news/2007/07/crowdsourcing?currentPage=2
http://stardustathome.ssl.berkeley.edu/
http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11326188
Crowd Media
In journalism, crowdsourcing is the use of a large group of readers to report a news story. Crowdsourcing is not conceptually alien to journalism and has its precedents in the “tipline”, where a news organization solicits phone suggestions for stories, or in the open call for readers to send in photos of happenings in their community. However, unlike traditional reporting, the information is not gathered manually but uploaded to an automated agent such as a website where online applications enable the collection, analysis and publication of reader-contributed news material in real time. As modern crowdsourcing requires little manual labour to sift through submitted material, it appears to be more efficient than traditional news reporting.
Local media portal STOMP (Straits Times Online Mobile Print) is a good example of how traditional newspapers are leveraging on new media technologies to interact and engage their readers. Armed with mobile phone cameras or other types of recording gizmos, STOMP readers tackle investigations that, for varied reasons, the mainstream press is less eager to address. Whether it be a celebrity sighting in the heartlands, a pet in distress or a gang fight in school, all events receive coverage so long as they resonate with readers. At bottom, a fundamental shift is occurring in the way people think about news. They see media as a vehicle for live discussion in which the public deserves a voice equal to that of an editor.
Sources:
http://www.stomp.com.sg/about/about.html
http://www.ojr.org/ojr/stories/070731niles/
http://www.wired.com/techbiz/media/news/2007/07/view_from_crowds
http://www.wired.com/techbiz/media/news/2007/07/stockwaves
http://www.wired.com/techbiz/media/news/2007/07/news_users_use
Crowdsourcing the Establishment
Crowdsourcing also has potential to be a problem-solving mechanism for government. The UK Government recently launched a crowdsourcing competition, called “Show Us a Better Way”, with the hope that innovative teams and individuals will suggest better methods for using and analyzing open-source data. Winners of this competition stand to win a £20,000 prize fund to develop their ideas into government policies for improving the way public information is communicated.
Adopting a similar tack, President Obama’s administration began the “Citizen’s Briefing Book” project to enable everyday Americans to share their expertise and insight with the President on policy issues. As part of this initiative, the administration has appointed Google executive Katie Stanton as “Director of Citizen Participation” with the aim of using Web tools to enable citizens to participate in policy decisions.
On the security front, crowdsourcing might well prove to be better than the Secret Service when it comes to collecting intelligence on the ground. Using Photosynth technology to organise and reposition a collection of crowdsourced photos, Microsoft was able to construct a navigable 3-D model of the landscape where the 2009 Presidential Inauguration took place. Photosynth is just one of several surveillance technologies that the government can capitalize on for security purposes.
As sources and producers of information become increasingly diverse, governments around the world are going to find it increasingly difficult to police and regulate the flow of information. British and American approaches to this greater plurality of perspectives appear to veer away from having government stymie the flow of information. Instead, government becomes an enabler and promoter of many disparate viewpoints for the sake of surfacing truly elegant ideas. Taken together, the examples above suggest that one method with which the state can respond astutely and efficiently to new challenges in governance is for government to be an aggregator and facilitator of ideas that organically emerge from society.
Sources:
Daren C. Brabham. (2008). “Crowdsourcing as a Model for Problem Solving: An Introduction and Cases”, Convergence: The International Journal of Research into New Media Technologies, 14(1), pp. 75-90.
Daren C. Brabham. (in press). “Crowdsourcing the Public Participation Process for Planning Projects”, Planning Theory.
http://change.gov/newsroom/entry/wrapping_up_the_citizens_briefing_book/
http://www.fta.dot.gov/planning/programs/planning_environment_8711.html.
http://collegemogul.com/1/21/08/Why-Crowdsourcing-Might-be-Better-than-the-Secret-Service
For the People by the People?
It stands to reason that crowdsourcing would be the perfect vehicle for grassroots organization and civic action since crowdsourcing, as a model of problem-solving, subscribes to the notion that the many have the power to solve their own problems themselves. True enough, non-profit organizations, like Oxfam Novib, have launched crowdsourcing initiatives to support its campaigning activities to eradicate poverty worldwide.
Likewise, the Rockefeller Foundation, a philanthropic organization, has teamed up with a private web-based service provider to connect “seekers” of solutions to social problems, such as poverty and gender discrimination, to a global community of engineers, technologists, scientists, inventors and entrepreneurs. A “problem-solver” is paid an award only if the undertaken problem is solved successfully. Not only will the Foundation fund these awards, but it also pays for the access, posting and service fees related to the usage of this network of “problem-solvers” on behalf of poor “seekers”.
Ostensibly, the use of crowdsourcing for humanitarian causes, by NGOs and philanthropic organizations, lowers the overheads of campaigning activities and diminishes the barriers of entry to civic participation. At the fundamental level, advocates of civic crowdsourcing surmise that an increase in the number of participants results in a proportionate improvement in the level of civic representation and ingenuity of ideas. They also believe that the internet is the perfect technology to aggregate and harness the wisdom of the masses to produce solutions superior to those of solo geniuses or experts; since a larger aggregate of ideas presumably has the diversity of perspectives vital to the output of better ideas.
Barriers of entry to the creative process of solution-generation might have been lowered but another question emerges: are they low enough to raise the level of intellectual diversity essential to the development of effective solutions? The “digital divide” in society, between individuals who have access to the technology to participate in crowdsourcing and those who do not, leads to the corollary that the “crowd” to be sourced is likely to come from a certain socio-economic demographic: literate, highly-educated, leisurely and able to afford home high-speed internet connections.
Users of crowdsourcing, therefore, need to be conscious of digital divisions in society and how homogenous crowds might not generate the diversity of viewpoints that imbues “wisdom” in what is perceived to be an accessible, democratic and co-creative process.
Sources:
http://www.google.org/projects.html
http://www.rockfound.org/initiatives/innovation/innocentive.shtml
