Posts Tagged ‘singapore’
Developing Futures Capabilities
At the 2010 Global Futures Forum, Futures Group was asked to share our experience on developing futures capabilities over the past four years (soon coming to five!). Cheryl wrote the text of the speech, and it covers a fair number of the FAQ on the who, how and what of the process we went through in developing futures capabilities that I think it’s worth putting up here.
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“Developing Futures Capabilities in MTI”
Global Futures Forum
13 September 2010
Link to presentation:
Introduction
1. Good afternoon, Ladies and Gentlemen.
2. I have to confess that I accepted the invitation to speak at today’s
forum with a sense of intrigue. As I understood it, the Global Futures
Forum is a gathering of practitioners of the art of futures thinking. I
couldn’t quite see how a modestly‐sized government unit could add
to the depth of the discussions which would take place at the forum.
Then I realised that much of the discussion would be focused on the
practice of futures in the security domain. So perhaps there is a
perspective we can provide, which is : why there is a need for futures
capabilities in an economic agency such as the Ministry of Trade and
Industry, and how we have gone about doing so.
I. Challenges in Thinking About the Future from MTI’s perspective
3. Let me first set out the 3 challenges in thinking about and preparing
for the future from the perspective of an economic ministry.
4. The first challenge of “anticipating” is well conveyed in what the
author William Gibson once said, and I quote, “The future is here, it’s
just not evenly distributed.” What he meant, in today’s context, was
that there are weak signals in the present that can perhaps help us
picture the future. Of course, weakness here does not necessarily
mean less data or information. There could be a lot of information,
most of which is noise and irrelevant, from which the signal must be
picked out. The paradox is that information which is noise can only
be identified as noise after the signal is discerned. So the challenge is
to discern, exante, the signal from the noise and do that while
suspending our assumptions of what the future could look like. This
is an exercise which is rather complex when the future that we are
discerning signals for is that of the economy.
5. The Ministry of Trade and Industry, or any government agency, is of
course not alone in this problem. An IBM survey of 1500 global CEOs
this year found that CEOs placed “managing complexity” as the most
important thing on their agenda. IBM’s CEO, Sam Palmisano put it
this way ‐ “Events, threats and opportunities aren’t just coming at us
faster or with less predictability; they are converging and influencing
each other to create entirely unique situations.”
6. The second challenge is in leveraging networks, which I will
somewhat simplistically call “networking”. How do we pick up weak
signals, cross silos and disseminate insights? Like most
organisations, MTI operates on the basis of a functional and
hierarchical structure. The resulting clarity of divisional
responsibilities is a double‐edged sword. On the one hand it
facilitates focus and operational efficiency. On the other hand, it then
becomes all too easy for teams to work in silos independently from
each other.
7. MTI is not a particularly large ministry, but the danger is there. Even
on a day‐to‐day basis there is a need to leverage on expertise and
tacit knowledge housed in various units across the ministry, as well
as networks outside the ministry. This is especially true for futures
work because such networks play multiple roles here. For example,
what if what one division regards as noise and irrelevant actually has
implications for the work of another division? What if isolated trends
spotted by individual divisions may not appear to signify much, but
the intersection of these at specific points in time, can cause
disruption? Synthesising signals across networks helps to surface
weak signals, to connect seemingly unrelated issues and also to
disseminate insights to a wider audience.
8. The third challenge is in “translating”. How do we translate weak
signals into actionable insights that impact policy? Even though we
may be able to detect weak signals and may be able to determine that
they are relevant to our organisation, what next? We need to project
how they might come together to disrupt today’s patterns. It is also
not always clear how we might be able to do things differently. To
put it in another way, the idea needs be developed and translated
into insight, and then influence policy development and decision
making.
9. For MTI as a policy ministry, translation also needs to take into
account time sensitivity. In other words, we need to be aware of the
timelines of the events or developments which the signals might lead
to, as well as time needed for policies and plans to be developed.
10. The 3 problems of “anticipating”, “networking” and “translating” for
MTI can be reframed as follows: Which emerging trends are relevant
and important for Singapore’s economic future? More specifically,
how can the ministry better spot and understand weak signals that
could impact the government’s goal of enabling strong economic
growth, job creation and higher standards of living?
11. The reality is that this is hard. At a leadership retreat in November
05, senior management of MTI and the statutory boards reflected
that the day‐to‐day urgency of policy work sometimes made it
difficult to think in depth about the future. It was decided that a
dedicated Futures unit would be set up to identify nascent and
emerging trends which might bear significance for the economy in
the medium to long‐term, and coalesce these into insights which
would inform policy development and initiatives. The Futures Group
is charged not with predicting the future as such, but with the task of
generating new insights into implications of emerging trends to the
Singapore economy, to augment and complement regular policy
formulation and catalyse new areas of focus.
12. As it turns out, this role ends up with the Futures Group looking at a
very wide range of issues. It is not only economic issues that impact
the economy. At MTI, we have learned that we should be prepared to
look at any trend that might have economic impact on Singapore,
from science and technology to emerging economies to
environmental issues to demographics and society and disruptive
business models. For example, we might look at an issue like “youth”,
which might be typically viewed as a social issue. MTI looks at this
issue from an economic perspective and we ask ourselves questions
like, “What jobs do today’s youth want to do when they join the
workforce?”
II. Strategic Foresight at MTI
13. A constant challenge a futures group like the MTI Futures Group
faces is how to balance the forward‐looking nature of the research
topics with practical implications. Too far out into the future, and we
are talking about flying cars and jet‐packs; ideas that are too
removed from reality and will not be taken seriously. Too pragmatic
and we could lose the ability to see blind spots and detect potentially
disruptive trends.
14. The MTI Futures Group finds ourselves playing the role of a scout
who is on the lookout for an anticipated event just over the horizon.
The team also tries to catch trends that might fall in through the gaps
because it may look at the same issues but from a different
perspective and from a much longer timeframe. Let me give you an
example. At the end of 2007, the world experienced an
unprecedented spike in the price of oil, which led to unexpected food
price shocks. The MTI Futures Group had just prior to that, produced
a research piece on the Future of Food, anticipating the food price
shocks but also identifying mitigating threats and opportunities in
the agricultural industry. In the research, we had highlighted how
other countries were setting up overseas food zones to address
longer‐term food needs of their populations. We shared the research
at various government platforms, coinciding with the beginning of
conversations of whether Singapore should set up overseas food
zones. In May this year, the Ministry overseeing National
Development announced a collaboration with the Jilin food zone
project in China.
15. Secondly, as I mentioned earlier, it can be easy for silos to form. A
vast pool of knowledge and expertise already exists within the
ministry and its agencies. To be effective, the Futures Group has had
to leverage and connect with these sources, both to inform and
validate our work as well as platforms to receive ideas and research
findings. We also tap into the wider Government network of
foresight teams through sharing of methodologies and doing joint
project. This has been invaluable in helping the Futures Group ramp
up our foresight capabilities.
16. Thirdly, having a rich pool of ideas does not mean that it is clear how
they would inform policy decisions. The ideas still need that
gestation period to breathe, percolate and develop into insight and
strategy. For example, the Futures Group undertook a study on
“batteries” in 2008, but it was not until we highlighted the
implications for electric vehicles that an idea like “batteries” became
actionable insight for the Singapore Energy Market Authority, which
then set up a inter‐agency taskforce to look at the feasibility of testbedding
electric vehicles in Singapore.
17. Let me illustrate how this all comes together. Last year, during the
financial crisis, MTI, like the rest of the public service, was very busy.
There were many conflicting signals on how the economy might
unfold. The reality was that we understood and could make sense of
very little about what was happening. At the same time we were
under immense time pressure to deliver policy solutions. At that
time, the Futures Group partnered with the economists at the
Ministry and embarked on a study to look at the Future of Global
Demand – how the post‐crisis world might look like after all the dust
has settled.
18. With the global financial crisis, the short term was like moving
through a volatile and uncertain fog as economies and the financial
system sought to adapt and respond. But the key question in all of
this was, which future will emerge? This was where the Ministry
found that having a dedicated Futures Units to do in depth analyses
and suggest possible paths beyond the “fog” was very useful. The
Future of Global Demand study postulated 3 possible future
scenarios and gave clarity at a time of great chaos. We were able to
use the insights from the research in many ways – to explain the
crisis to our colleagues at MTI and the statutory boards through an
informational video, to set the context for discussions at the
Economic Strategies Committee through a detailed report on the
scenarios and their implications and to inform the wider government
through an article in the Civil Service College publication, Ethos.
III. Lessons learnt along the way
19. We see building futures capabilities at the Ministry as a continuing
process. We are still learning and growing. I would like to share with
you some of the lessons that we have learnt along the way.
20. Firstly, because the Futures Group focuses on content generation, we
select and apply futures methodologies on a research‐ and projectspecific
basis. . While this means that we are not wedded to specific
methodologies, it also means that it is easy to become a jack of all
trades and master of none. So we make a conscious effort to keep our
toolkit updated. This is where tapping on the wider network of
foresight practitioners within the Singapore Government and beyond
has been very useful.
21. Secondly, a strong Government network is a necessary but
insufficient condition to do good futures work. As an economic
agency, it is very important for the Ministry to be plugged into the
private sector to better understand their plans and concerns and how
they view the future. For example, in undertaking our research on
the Future of Chinese Enterprise, we interviewed more than 100
Chinese business leaders. Interviews were crucial in getting an “on
the ground” understanding of where Chinese enterprises were
heading. We were able to gain access to these interviews through
tapping on the strong industry networks of government agency
partners such as the Economic Development Board and IE Singapore.
22. There is still room for improvement here. While we present
regularly at private sector fora and interview many companies as
part of research projects, engagement of the private sector is still
quite ad‐hoc. We are now trying to make this more systematic. In
recent months, we have compiled a trend pack summarizing key
ideas from the last 4 years of the Futures Group’s research and are
beginning to approach and engage companies in a much more
systematic way.
23. Finally, the Futures Group needs to translate ideas generated into
meaningful insights that inform and impact policy in order to be
effective. This is a standing challenge. The examples I described
earlier, the Future of Global Demand and the Future of Food were the
result of collaborations with divisions and agencies under the
Ministry and even agencies outside the immediate circle of agencies
under the Ministry. Such iterative conversations help refine and
bring clarity to the “what ifs” in the models we are developing.
Closing Remarks
24. I hope I have offered some insight into the role and challenges of a
futures team in an economic ministry. Although the Futures Group in
MTI was one of the earlier teams formed to undertake futures work
in such a non‐security setting, there are now many more government
agencies in Singapore doing so. This growing network will offer
excellent platforms for us to hold precisely the iterative
conversations I highlighted earlier, which almost certainly will enrich
and strengthen outcomes of futures projects.
25. Let me now conclude by highlighting an aspect of our work which we
spend quite a lot of attention on. A key capability that MTI Futures
Group has focused on and is still developing is the ability to
communicate ideas and start conversations. To this end, we have
tried to experiment and be quite creative in sharing our insights with
large audiences.
26. Earlier this year the MTI Futures Group, together with our colleagues
at SPO, produced a video, the People’s Republic of Change. We first
screened this video at an internal Ministry event to share insights
from our research on China and to start conversations about how a
rising China might impact Singapore. We are happy to share it with
you today as an example of how we communicate our ideas and
insights.
27. Thank you very much.
Link to video:
Singapore in 2050
This is a classic artifact from the future. This is WoHa’s projective Strange Times, part of DesignSingapore’s Design 2050 Studios – created as a “gateway to the future” to hub a creative community to create future design propositions on various aspects of life in 2050 – which sets the island state of Singapore in the year 2050 in times of rising sea levels and shortening fuel resources. What imagination!
(yes, this came out in 2009 and I’ve always wanted to post the softcopy of the newspaper, here it is.)
Singapore Competitiveness Report 2009
The LKY School of Public Policy just released its Singapore Competitiveness Report for 2009. You can download it here.
Singapore Youth
Youth are our literal future.
I just came back from TED India in Mysore, and I saw examples of how Indian youth, using the array of mobile communications, Internet, social networking tools etc available, have been able to build businesses and also fulfill their social responsibilities. In their own way, they are pushing forward their vision of a new India.
How much does the leading edge of youth tell us about the future? In Singapore’s case, what does the leading edge of youth tell us what to expect of Singapore’s future? Futures Group just completed a study that I’ve posted in greater detail which you can download here.
How can Singapore tap on the leading edge of youth of Asia to help them fulfil both their career and social aspirations? What are their commonalities? I may not have articulated so explicitly before, but I believe that the city/nation that is able to tap on the creative energies of Asia’s leading youth stands in good stead to create a vibrant future.
Selling Salvation in Singapore
Some quotes on the rising trend of intense religiosity in Singapore. The article is targeted at brand/marketing managers on learning best practices from the marketers of salvation. Full article can be found here.
“Religion’s biggest allure is that it gives consumers values they can live by. The values that religions preach are open to interpretation, allowing followers to make it their own. In this way, they don’t feel like they are buying blindly into something, but rather adopting a belief system that they genuinely aspire to and abide by in their daily lives.”
- McCann’s Tan.
“Like it or not, an uncomfortable truth is that Singaporean culture has a value system linked to materialism. Religion helps people in their quest for a deeper level of fulfillment. This is their secret. Brands take note.”
- Sunshine, Robert Campbell
What’s in a Singapore brand?
Singapore brands are making their way across Asia, or so this AFP report says. It’s great to see some positive publicity for our local companies in the international press, but what’s interesting is that there’s nothing inherently local about any of the products that have made it successfully across the region. Is there anything culturally unique that can make it as the next big Singapore brand?
The Monocle Singapore Survey
Update by chorpharn on 29 July – The entire Singapore survey can be downloaded from EDB’s website here.
Cocksure
From New Yorker’s Malcolm Gladwell, an article on overconfidence, full article worth your few minutes reading here. Winning sometimes brings hubris, we say, and we guard against this as a deadly personality trait. This is especially so for those who make decisions that affect a society. The article points out that overconfidence is a state as much as a trait. Ability makes a difference in competitions of skill, and we make the mistake of thinking it must also make a difference in competitions of pure chance. As novices we don’t trust our judgement. When we get to the top of our game, we succumb to the trap of thinking there’s nothing we can’t master.
The article uses the example of bridge and the real world. In bridge, there are rules and boundaries and situations that repeat themselves and clear patterns that develop – and when a player makes a mistake of overconfidence he or she learns of the consequence of that mistake almost immediately. In other words, it’s a game. But running a society is not, in this sense, a game: it is not a closed world with a limited set of possibilities. It is an open world where one day a calamity can happen that no one dreamed would happen, and where you can make a mistake of overconfidence and not personally feel the consequence for years.
The world post-crisis feels the same on a day to day level, but the quality of it is different. You can feel it in the fringes. Many things don’t make sense. My worry is that we have existed in a Chimerica world and one-way globalisation for so many years that it’s become a game. We come up with the same solutions of productivity, talent topping up etc almost automatically. It’s not so much that I am saying those solutions are wrong or misguided. But I am uneasy that we are not approaching this with a novice’s mind and watching with great concern and dread how the new world emerging in front of us truly is.
I am good at globalisation 3.0 doesn’t mean I must be good at globalisation 4.0, too.
Article: Journey into Uncharted Territory
Spoke with Jason Wee several weeks ago, and I am happy to get a softcopy of his article written for SGX’s Pulses Mag on securing Singapore’s future in the next ten/twenty years. I particularly like the emphasis on narrowing the divide and securing religion as a source of growth and stability.
